Mod+ The Crisis in Ukraine

[David Johansen]

It looks like there was an attempt to slow rail lines and capture weapons in Belarus by some of the locals using molatovs and an improvised explosive device. It's nice to be rooting for the rebels ain't it. Still, it gets harder to accept sitting on the side-lines every day. It seems more and more likely that Putin will use nukes whether NATO gets involved or not and we'll still be holding back in hopes he'll use fewer nukes.

 

[Giganotosaurus]

I don't think he'll use tactical nukes yet, that's a big escalation that would make his bad situation worse. Chemical and Biological weapons? Absolutely. While still a big escalation, they're less of an escalation than nuclear weapons. NATO thinks that the recent rhetoric about "Ukrainian Bio-Warfare Labs" is a sign that the Russians will be using them soon.

 

[Bunch]

I don't think he'll use tactical nukes yet, that's a big escalation that would make his bad situation worse. Chemical and Biological weapons? Absolutely. While still a big escalation, they're less of an escalation than nuclear weapons. NATO thinks that the recent rhetoric about "Ukrainian Bio-Warfare Labs" is a sign that the Russians will be using them soon.

I'm assuming Putin is checking with China that he can still get money before he uses them.

 

[Brock Savage]

I don't think he'll use tactical nukes yet, that's a big escalation that would make his bad situation worse. Chemical and Biological weapons? Absolutely. While still a big escalation, they're less of an escalation than nuclear weapons. NATO thinks that the recent rhetoric about "Ukrainian Bio-Warfare Labs" is a sign that the Russians will be using them soon.

I don't see how Putin's position can be improved by escalating or using WMDs. He "has the tiger by the tail" and is almost certainly looking for an opportunity to save face, declare "mission accomplished" and stay in power.

I'm assuming Putin is checking with China that he can still get money before he uses them.

Seeing as how China's economy is something like 10x the size of Russia's I believe Putin is wary of entering a relationship where China has a lot of leverage. To put it in historical perspective Germany's economy was like 2 or 3x the size of Italy's during WWII and Italy was clearly the sub in that relationship LOL.

 

[Bunch]

I don't see how Putin's position can be improved by escalating or using WMDs. He "has the tiger by the tail" and is almost certainly looking for an opportunity to save face, declare "mission accomplished" and stay in power.




Seeing as how China's economy is something like 10x the size of Russia's I believe Putin is wary of entering a relationship where China has a lot of leverage. To put it in historical perspective Germany's economy was like 2 or 3x the size of Italy's during WWII and Italy was clearly the sub in that relationship LOL.

Russia is already the sub with one big exception. They have nukes. That's a big difference.

 

[Brock Savage]

Russia is already the sub with one big exception. They have nukes. That's a big difference.

I don't think that nukes offer meaningful leverage. I feel like threatening "you must accept the terms of this deal or I'm gonna kill you and kill myself" is counterproductive in mundane business deals when Russia needs China and China doesn't need Russia.

 

[David Johansen]

I wish we could be sure of what they guy's motives are. I wish I could have fifteen minutes to talk to the guy in a casual setting. I saw that Oliver Stone did some interviews and not surprisingly, he likes Putin and thinks everything is America's fault.

 

[Bunch]

I don't think that nukes offer meaningful leverage. I feel like threatening "you must accept the terms of this deal or I'm gonna kill you and kill myself" is counterproductive in mundane business deals when Russia needs China and China doesn't need Russia.

China probably doesn't want Russia against it though. The already have one questionably stable partner with nukes. Do they really need two?
The phrase "When you owe the bank $1M that's your problem. When you owe the bank $10B dollars it's there's" rings true to me in this situation.

 

[Raleel]

if I remember correctly, China's relationship with Russia is primarily natural resources to power its manufacturing. If they are considering any involvement, it's because they don't have another option for gaining those resources that they like. Pretty sure, though the writing on the wall for Russia is bad, and China will not want to lose its #1 and #2 markets. It would rather jockey for position to control other resource providers and avoid the conflict. "Conflict is bad for business".

China also takes very long views on things. If they see some value in entering on Russia's side, they must see a long game there as well. I would think there would be more long term gain on getting in at the bottom floor with a fledgling Russian government.

I still think they stay out and play around in Africa while everyone dickers in Europe.

 

[Endless Flight]

I’m not really worried about Russia using nukes. Putin can’t just press the button himself. The world was closer to nuclear war than at any other moment in history during the Bay of Pigs in 1962 and it didn’t happen.

 

[Winterblight]

[h3][/h3]Interesting article

The Ukraine-russia war is over. putin has lost and he knows it.

There are no more paths to victory for russia. The russian army is past culmination, its forces are exhausted, decimated, and demoralized. Ukrainians, with growing confidence, capabilities, and morale have begun offensives to cut of the russian spearheads. These offensives will continue and grow, and if russia does not retreat in the next two weeks it will lose most of its army to death and destruction.....

It also looks like another Russian general has been killed.

 

[Tulpa Girl]

Assuming that this doesn't escalate to the point where we all become radioactive ashes, the books written in the next several years about this war are going to make for fascinating reading - both with the incompetence of the Russian military*, especially in regards to how badly they've fucked up their logistics** on one side, and the Ukrainian's excellent use of asymmetrical warfare as well as their masterful use of PR.

*as a cold war baby, can I say just how fucking surreal it is to see how badly the Russian military is coming across?

**“Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.” - General Omar Bradley

 

[CRKrueger]

Assuming that this doesn't escalate to the point where we all become radioactive ashes, the books written in the next several years about this war are going to make for fascinating reading - both with the incompetence of the Russian military*, especially in regards to how badly they've fucked up their logistics** on one side, and the Ukrainian's excellent use of asymmetrical warfare as well as their masterful use of PR.

*as a cold war baby, can I say just how fucking surreal it is to see how badly the Russian military is coming across?

**“Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.” - General Omar Bradley

Eh, arm the populace with rifles, they fight back, hey the Constitution was right, who knew.
I'm much more surprised that Russia didn't have the proper ECM/ECCM capability.
Then again, I doubt they figured Information Age War would be Drones & Phones.

For analysis, much more interesting to me would be the books decades later about the CIA's involvement in the Ukrainian revolution of 2014 and how the US aid to Ukraine charts against Russian pipeline construction.

Russia's the clear aggressor, but it's hard to claim they had no Casus Belli, although the reason they are giving is mostly just bullshit.

 

[Brock Savage]

I keep meeting people who are blase about Ukraine and it's throwing my head for a loop. It's utterly shocking to interact with fucking philistines who have no idea what's at stake besides MAH GAS or WWIII neurosis. This is a showdown between democracies of free world and fascism. It's literally history in the making.

Unpopular opinion: at the time of writing I don't think Ukraine can capitalize on big ticket items like tanks and planes. I want to be proven wrong, of course, but this is what I believe until I see evidence to the contrary.

At this stage of the conflict, the splendid bravery and motivation of Ukraine fighters seems best utilized through easy to use, high impact, man portable gear like night vision, Javelins/NLAWs, Stingers, body armor, drones, small arms, and secure comms. Things can be used at the fireteam, squad and platoon level.

 

[CRKrueger]

It's shocking to me that people who have been alive for this whole millennium are looking uncritically at the reasons for the conflict and boiling everything down to a CNN soundbite. People throw terms like fascist around all the time, but Ukraine has real Neo-Nazi groups in the Government and Army. Of course that's not the reason for the invasion, but Ukraine's hardly 1776 2.0.

Putin needs to go, but so do a lot of fuckers around the world. That's not the reason we're trying to stop him, either.

 

[Agemegos]

*as a cold war baby, can I say just how fucking surreal it is to see how badly the Russian military is coming across?

I, too, am getting flashbacks to 1992, the last time we astounded to discover that vaunted Russian military might was a paper tiger concealing ill-trained conscripts, sub-par equipment way behind on routine maintenance, impractical doctrine, ineffective leadership, grossly inadequate logistics, and lousy morale. It’s almost as though Russia had no cultural tradition of military excellence and as though kleptocratic oligarchies were bad at maintaining large powerful armies with tactical initiative assigned to tactical leaders.

 

[David Johansen]

It's shocking to me that people who have been alive for this whole millennium are looking uncritically at the reasons for the conflict and boiling everything down to a CNN soundbite. People throw terms like fascist around all the time, but Ukraine has real Neo-Nazi groups in the Government and Army. Of course that's not the reason for the invasion, but Ukraine's hardly 1776 2.0.

Putin needs to go, but so do a lot of fuckers around the world. That's not the reason we're trying to stop him, either.

Yeah from what I recall, when Zelensky got elected the news was all over his being a right wing nationalist. When Russia invaded Crimea the media were saying Nato didn't want Ukraine because they were Nazis. They probably aren't Nazis, you can be a fascist without being a Nazi but they weren't popular with the western powers back then. I'm afraid the west's current strategy is to let Russia break itself in Ukraine and effect regime change in Russia at Ukraine's expense by equipping the Ukrainians to drag the war out as long as possible. Which isn't to say I know what the solution is, I'm afraid I'm quite capable of disliking things without seeing better alternatives.

 

[Shipyard Locked]

WWIII neurosis

We're all gamers here, so I hope you understand me when I get real nervous in response to someone saying, "Come on people, the odds of this ending in disaster are super low! The bad guys are bluffing, let's rush in there like big damn heroes!"

 

[Brock Savage]

People throw terms like fascist around all the time

Fascism is hard to define and people do throw it around a lot but that doesn't mean we should avoid the term. I think Umberto Eco has a pretty good description of fascist qualities.

 

[CRKrueger]

Yeah from what I recall, when Zelensky got elected the news was all over his being a right wing nationalist. When Russia invaded Crimea the media were saying Nato didn't want Ukraine because they were Nazis. They probably aren't Nazis, you can be a fascist without being a Nazi but they weren't popular with the western powers back then. I'm afraid the west's current strategy is to let Russia break itself in Ukraine and effect regime change in Russia at Ukraine's expense by equipping the Ukrainians to drag the war out as long as possible. Which isn't to say I know what the solution is, I'm afraid I'm quite capable of disliking things without seeing better alternatives.

We've done such a bang-up job on Regime Change, and bringing the people of nations into the fold by crushing them economically and starving them, why shouldn't we keeping doing it?

A reality check from the 80's.

 

[CRKrueger]

Fascism is hard to define and people do throw it around a lot but that doesn't mean we should avoid the term. I think Umberto Eco has a pretty good description of fascist qualities.

Eco's great, no doubt. However while Putin's regime might have more of them, quite a few of those could easily apply to either the US or Ukraine.

 

[Dyrnwyn]

I keep meeting people who are blase about Ukraine and it's throwing my head for a loop. It's utterly shocking to interact with fucking philistines who have no idea what's at stake besides MAH GAS or WWIII neurosis. This is a showdown between democracies of free world and fascism. It's literally history in the making.

I'm not blase about it, but it's also not the only war going on the world either -- Syria, Yemen, Tigray, etc. But good luck finding anyone in the US who cares or even knows about those.

 

[Endless Flight]

I’m more than likely going to close this thread very, very soon.

 

[Agemegos]

Fascism is hard to define and people do throw it around a lot but that doesn't mean we should avoid the term.

Yes it does. If people do not share an understanding of what a word means, they cannot use it to communicate.

The word “fascist” adds heat without light.

 

[thebigh]

I’m more than likely going to close this thread very, very soon.

How come? Do we need to get it back on topic, or has it just run its course?

 

[Endless Flight]

How come? Do we need to get it back on topic, or has it just run its course?

There are a couple of reasons but I’m not getting into them in this thread.

 

[David Johansen]

It's a topic that can't help but be political.

 

[Brock Savage]

Yes it does. If people do not share an understanding of what a word means, they cannot use it to communicate.

It goes without saying that people should only use words they understand.

We're all gamers here, so I hope you understand me when I get real nervous in response to someone saying, "Come on people, the odds of this ending in disaster are super low! The bad guys are bluffing, let's rush in there like big damn heroes!"

With all due respect, there's no evidence that the major players in the Ukraine conflict are recklessly gambling with the fate of nations. Everyone of importance knows the grim reality of what's at stake. The Soviets were masters of bluff and fakery in this game. I expect the Russian to carry on the tradition.

 

[Bunch]

I like tacos.

 

[urbwar]

*as a cold war baby, can I say just how fucking surreal it is to see how badly the Russian military is coming across?

As someone who was in the US Army during the cold war, I'm only partially surprised. They always had the numbers, but we always had the better training and equipment. They were still a formidable opponent, but their limitations would eventually cost them. Given a lot of equipment they're using was the same as what they used in Afghanistan, we've known the capabilities of their forces for some time. When the Iraqi military (which used Russian equipment) couldn't stand up to ours, I wasn't surprised. Even the Republican Guard, who had combat experience, couldn't go toe to toe with US forces.

Given Ukraine's military had training assistance by the US and other countries, they were better prepared. I didn't expect them to do this well; I figured by now the Russian numbers would have prevailed. The fact that their forces have fought so poorly for most of this war shows how far they've allowed their military to go to shit. They overestimated their own capabilities, and totally underestimated the resolve of Ukraine (military, people, and Zelenskyy). I think Putin bought into his own propaganda about Russia's military might. Had he kept his own house in order, and rooted out all the corruption, I suspect we'd be seeing a different outcome. Instead, he's shown the world he went into this with blinders on, and his doubling down is the only way he knows how to handle the embarrassment he's caused himself.

 

[AsenRG]

I like tacos.

I agree, totally unpolitically!

 

[Vile Traveller]

*as a cold war baby, can I say just how fucking surreal it is to see how badly the Russian military is coming across?

You can, and it is. I mean, I've seen the Chinese military up close and am not worried in the least about their chances of invading Taiwan, but with Russia it's like the world has been operating under the biggest bluff in history for the last few decades.

It also begs the question of how functional Russia's nuclear deterrent remains at this stage, though I don't imagine anyone is willing to make a bet on that one.

 

[Luca]

With all due respect the "this is more complex than it looks, it's our fault too" is utter and complete bullshit. This is one of those rare cases where there's a very clear cut good/evil split, and we're the good and Putin is the evil.

Point the first, NATO was born to avoid USSR gobbling up the half of Europe they still had not invaded after WWII; NATO's nature was defensive from the start and the past 75 years of history have verified this as true. The same cannot be said of USSR first / Russia later.

Point the second, Ukraine might be a corrupt democracy with right wing elements but it's just that: a *democracy*. They have a former comic actor as their heroic war president, for crying out loud. By contrast, anyone defining current Russia as a democracy is deluded.

Point the third: Putin's actions show how correct east european countries were in trying to join NATO as quickly as possible. Because, let's remember, contrary to Russia's modus operandi, NATO does not coerce its prospective members to join. They ask out of their own volition.

Point the fourth, any talk of NATO planning to invade Russia by edging closer to its borders is utter bollocks due to nuclear deterrence. Territorial integrity is the one red line any nuclear power will recognize as a legitimate circumstance to employ your own arsenal.

Point the fifth, and the most important: anyone who thinks what's happening in Ukraine answers to a rational Russian design or counter-reaction to what us bad and evil westerners did, has not been paying attention. It follows on the same trajectory of what *HAS BEEN* a classical imperialistic design (from USSR first and Putin later on), in which the outer provinces are conquered and deploy resources to the center, but whatever rationality it had has gone out of the window.

Putin's mind is gone. Never mind the ridiculous photos with him on a side and whomever is talking (western presidents and/or his own goons) on the other side of a huge table / room; never mind the "victory article" clumsily published on the web two days after the start of the invasion which was, if not penned directly by him, written by someone who certainly has a very precise idea of what he's thinking, and in which he was basically presented as the glorious, historic russian messiah destined to go down in history as the re-unificator of all the russian peoples; never mind the obvious physical changes and the more and more violently extremistic rhetoric; if you want to be sure his mind is gone, consider this: a rational Putin would have never started an invasion which is a colossal strategical blunder.

Even assuming his plans went as foreseen, Kyev fallen in 2 days, Zelensky killed etc.: what then? How do you plan to keep Ukraine with 200.000 troops? It's flat-out impossible. It would be hard even with light resistance; with a nation of 44 million people hating your guts and willing to die to defend their country it's just wishful thinking. The Russian army would have been destined to be attritioned to death in any case; that it is doing so without even achieving any of the initial objectives just underlines what a pathetic mess the whole Russian high command structure is.
And please don't use the "he was lied by his intelligence" line. He has worked in KGB for decades and most, if not all, of the current leaders have been chosen by him. If he doesn't know how russian services really work, then no one does.


One last thing:

I'm afraid the west's current strategy is to let Russia break itself in Ukraine and effect regime change in Russia at Ukraine's expense by equipping the Ukrainians to drag the war out as long as possible. Which isn't to say I know what the solution is, I'm afraid I'm quite capable of disliking things without seeing better alternatives.

This is exactly what we're doing. What you don't seem to grasp is: the Ukrainians are not morons. They know this perfectly well. And they have been **ASKING US** the weapons to finish the job.
Do you think it's because they're all nazi fanatics, or because they weren't left any other choice? And if the latter is the case, who's the one responsible for not letting them have any other choice?

Sorry, but this is one of those incredibly rare cases where the west as a whole, for once, did all the right things and didn't screw up. So far, at least. Let's pray we can keep it so.

 

[Raleel]

Given Ukraine's military had training assistance by the US and other countries, they were better prepared. I didn't expect them to do this well; I figured by now the Russian numbers would have prevailed. The fact that their forces have fought so poorly for most of this war shows how far they've allowed their military to go to shit. They overestimated their own capabilities, and totally underestimated the resolve of Ukraine (military, people, and Zelenskyy). I think Putin bought into his own propaganda about Russia's military might. Had he kept his own house in order, and rooted out all the corruption, I suspect we'd be seeing a different outcome. Instead, he's shown the world he went into this with blinders on, and his doubling down is the only way he knows how to handle the embarrassment he's caused himself.

It might also highlight how effective our training was in the right situation with motivated people.

one thing I can say from my interactions with Ukrainians on the cyber front - they are extremely competent. I’ve had to push back against some folks who want to “help” them, and come from a position of US superiority like they are some backwater country. The folks I met with last month were not even out of college when I was in Ukraine last and they had made an incredibly professional and resilient architecture in the intervening years. I just couldn’t find flaw in it at a high level. Good process, good procedures, good tech, etc. so now I encourage folks to think of it more “how can we partner with them? What can we do together?”

 

[Shipyard Locked]

With all due respect, there's no evidence that the major players in the Ukraine conflict are recklessly gambling with the fate of nations. Everyone of importance knows the grim reality of what's at stake. The Soviets were masters of bluff and fakery in this game. I expect the Russian to carry on the tradition.

I fervently hope you are right. When the penalty for losing the game is not just oblivion for countless millions across this planet but the erasure of 90% of what they and their ancestors worked to create, no amount of caution seems excessive. Cunning and patience can outlast ailing dictators and undermine incompetent occupations, but ICBMs make the very idea of hope moot.

 

[David Johansen]

This is exactly what we're doing. What you don't seem to grasp is: the Ukrainians are not morons. They know this perfectly well. And they have been **ASKING US** the weapons to finish the job.
Do you think it's because they're all nazi fanatics, or because they weren't left any other choice? And if the latter is the case, who's the one responsible for not letting them have any other choice?

Sorry, but this is one of those incredibly rare cases where the west as a whole, for once, did all the right things and didn't screw up. So far, at least. Let's pray we can keep it so.

I hope they're right and I hope it works. But the cost to the Ukrainian people is already very high. And I know what is at stake that holds back NATO's hand. But it is so very hard to watch it happening. And in the aftermath of these things I really hope some serious thought is given to how and why it happened so that we can try to avoid it ever happening again.

But let's be clear, Russia is the bad guy here and Vladimir Putin and his supporters are responsible.

 

[urbwar]

It might also highlight how effective our training was in the right situation with motivated people.

Given how poorly planned out this invasion has been from the start, that definitely had a major hand in why Russia is doing so poorly. Russia did hold back on some things though, because they had a façade to keep up. If they had pulled out their cold war tactics, they would have pounded artillery in front of them before moving in. They were expecting most of Ukraine to roll over and welcome them with open arms, so that tactic wasn't necessary in their eyes. I suspect now that reality has sunk in, we're going to see Russia start to get more aggressive with air strikes, missiles and mobile artillery hitting the cities. If they won't give up, Putin will do the same thing he did to Grozny. The thing is, Ukraine isn't Chechnya, so that is going to just harden their resolve to resist. I suspect its going to get nastier than its been soon though. I hope I'm wrong, but the more isolated Russia becomes, and the more their army keeps failing like they have been, the more likely the gloves will come off.

 

[Ronnie Sanford]

Eh, arm the populace with rifles, they fight back, hey the Constitution was right, who knew.
I'm much more surprised that Russia didn't have the proper ECM/ECCM capability.
Then again, I doubt they figured Information Age War would be Drones & Phones.

For analysis, much more interesting to me would be the books decades later about the CIA's involvement in the Ukrainian revolution of 2014 and how the US aid to Ukraine charts against Russian pipeline construction.

Russia's the clear aggressor, but it's hard to claim they had no Casus Belli, although the reason they are giving is mostly just bullshit.

The sad thing is that this war is likely to result in Ukraine signing a document agreeing that they will not join NATO just like the Russians always wanted. If the heads of NATO had kept their word in the first place and quickly agreed in writing that Ukraine wouldn’t be joining NATO we would have had the same thing minus all the death on both sides and destruction in Ukraine. I blame Putin but I also blame the west.

 

[Ronnie Sanford]

With all due respect the "this is more complex than it looks, it's our fault too" is utter and complete bullshit. This is one of those rare cases where there's a very clear cut good/evil split, and we're the good and Putin is the evil.

Point the first, NATO was born to avoid USSR gobbling up the half of Europe they still had not invaded after WWII; NATO's nature was defensive from the start and the past 75 years of history have verified this as true. The same cannot be said of USSR first / Russia later.

Point the second, Ukraine might be a corrupt democracy with right wing elements but it's just that: a *democracy*. They have a former comic actor as their heroic war president, for crying out loud. By contrast, anyone defining current Russia as a democracy is deluded.

Point the third: Putin's actions show how correct east european countries were in trying to join NATO as quickly as possible. Because, let's remember, contrary to Russia's modus operandi, NATO does not coerce its prospective members to join. They ask out of their own volition.

Point the fourth, any talk of NATO planning to invade Russia by edging closer to its borders is utter bollocks due to nuclear deterrence. Territorial integrity is the one red line any nuclear power will recognize as a legitimate circumstance to employ your own arsenal.

Point the fifth, and the most important: anyone who thinks what's happening in Ukraine answers to a rational Russian design or counter-reaction to what us bad and evil westerners did, has not been paying attention. It follows on the same trajectory of what *HAS BEEN* a classical imperialistic design (from USSR first and Putin later on), in which the outer provinces are conquered and deploy resources to the center, but whatever rationality it had has gone out of the window.

Putin's mind is gone. Never mind the ridiculous photos with him on a side and whomever is talking (western presidents and/or his own goons) on the other side of a huge table / room; never mind the "victory article" clumsily published on the web two days after the start of the invasion which was, if not penned directly by him, written by someone who certainly has a very precise idea of what he's thinking, and in which he was basically presented as the glorious, historic russian messiah destined to go down in history as the re-unificator of all the russian peoples; never mind the obvious physical changes and the more and more violently extremistic rhetoric; if you want to be sure his mind is gone, consider this: a rational Putin would have never started an invasion which is a colossal strategical blunder.

Even assuming his plans went as foreseen, Kyev fallen in 2 days, Zelensky killed etc.: what then? How do you plan to keep Ukraine with 200.000 troops? It's flat-out impossible. It would be hard even with light resistance; with a nation of 44 million people hating your guts and willing to die to defend their country it's just wishful thinking. The Russian army would have been destined to be attritioned to death in any case; that it is doing so without even achieving any of the initial objectives just underlines what a pathetic mess the whole Russian high command structure is.
And please don't use the "he was lied by his intelligence" line. He has worked in KGB for decades and most, if not all, of the current leaders have been chosen by him. If he doesn't know how russian services really work, then no one does.


One last thing:



This is exactly what we're doing. What you don't seem to grasp is: the Ukrainians are not morons. They know this perfectly well. And they have been **ASKING US** the weapons to finish the job.
Do you think it's because they're all nazi fanatics, or because they weren't left any other choice? And if the latter is the case, who's the one responsible for not letting them have any other choice?

Sorry, but this is one of those incredibly rare cases where the west as a whole, for once, did all the right things and didn't screw up. So far, at least. Let's pray we can keep it so.

Wow! They are evil and we here in the west are all good? Really?

Your memory seems to me to be rather selective and I don’t think you are really thinking this through.

 

[Giganotosaurus]

The sad thing is that this war is likely to result in Ukraine signing a document agreeing that they will not join NATO just like the Russians always wanted. If the heads of NATO had kept their word in the first place and quickly agreed in writing that Ukraine wouldn’t be joining NATO we would have had the same thing minus all the death on both sides and destruction in Ukraine. I blame Putin but I also blame the west.

I wouldn't say that, Putin's game is irredentism and irredentists don't care if you say you'll be neutral because at the end of the day your nation still isn't apart of theirs.
It's like saying WW2 wouldn't have happened if Poland had just given up the Danzig corridor.
Putin has just been using the NATO stuff to obfuscate his desire to restore Russia's borders to pre-1990.