robertsconley
Legendary Pubber
- Joined
- May 3, 2018
- Messages
- 5,757
- Reaction score
- 15,064
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature currently requires accessing the site using the built-in Safari browser.
That might explain everything about this war. They can't commit their best because they can't afford to lose it if they actually fear NATO. It might also be the best sign they don't intend to use nukes. Because if they really did they might not care much what they lose in Ukraine.The standing theory is that they're holding back on the limited good stuff for fighting NATO if it comes to that rather than expending it in Ukraine.
I can come up with some...It’s really hard to come up with words that can summarize what’s in my mind when I see pictures like this.
Russian forces fire on evacuees, leaving 4 people dead outside Kyiv.
The attack in Irpin, west of the capital, suggested either direct targeting of evacuees or disregard for the risk of civilian casualties.www.nytimes.com
Yeah, and Russians are already using Chinese systems as replacements. No one could have seen that one coming...Visa and Mastercard are partially shutting down processing of Russian purchases. Apparently, cards issued in Russia will not work outside of Russia and cards issued outside of Russia will not work in Russia.
I wonder what's up with Russia's limited use of air power. Maybe many of the aging craft aren't in great shape and their air force is functionally much smaller than on paper?
I noticed that most of Russian vehicles are cold war models, with maybe slight upgrades. I was curious so looked into things. Apparently, in the last decade, Russia has developed a new tank, IFV, and APC, all of which are supposed be very good, theoretically. The tank has a protective cell in the front where all 3 crew sit side by side. But none of these have entered full production. I don't know if they are still buggy or if economic issues prevented setting up a production line.
Yeah, and Russians are already using Chinese systems as replacements. No one could have seen that one coming...
Visa and Mastercard are partially shutting down processing of Russian purchases. Apparently, cards issued in Russia will not work outside of Russia and cards issued outside of Russia will not work in Russia.
I wonder what's up with Russia's limited use of air power. Maybe many of the aging craft aren't in great shape and their air force is functionally much smaller than on paper?
I noticed that most of Russian vehicles are cold war models, with maybe slight upgrades. I was curious so looked into things. Apparently, in the last decade, Russia has developed a new tank, IFV, and APC, all of which are supposed be very good, theoretically. The tank has a protective cell in the front where all 3 crew sit side by side. But none of these have entered full production. I don't know if they are still buggy or if economic issues prevented setting up a production line.
This is what I'm most afraid of. Putin's backed himself into a corner, while he'll likely take Ukraine, holding it will be a nightmare, and, combined with increasing economic pressure, I can easily see him doing something drastic.I can easily imagine a man like Putin doubling down on his decision and using small yield tactical baby nukes on the battlefield in an attempt to scare the West into backing off. Threats and bluffing are his modus operandi. That said, I think Putin screwed up and played the nuclear threat card way too early. I am hoping future threats fail miserably and increase the world's resolve to support Ukraine.
This is what I'm most afraid of. Putin's backed himself into a corner, while he'll likely take Ukraine, holding it will be a nightmare, and, combined with increasing economic pressure, I can easily see him doing something drastic.
Totally. Between the stealth one that was developed locally, and the ones they got from Turkey, their drones have had an impact on the battlefield. ABC News did an article about drone enthusiasts in the country gathering using civilian made drones to do their partI gather Ukraine's fun little bombing drones are messing up supply lines as well which might help explain some of the slow movement on the Russians part
I gather Ukraine's fun little bombing drones are messing up supply lines as well which might help explain some of the slow movement on the Russians part
Around 6am each morning a friend and share information and discuss the crisis. We have both noted how many people do not understand what a police state is and casually say things like "Russian people should take to the streets and end the war!" You need critical mass to rise up and the Russian government has decades of experience suppressing people below that point for some time. Obviously, Ukraine citizens are in a far worse situation than Russian citizenry and I support sanctions over bombs but I don't want 140 million people in NK-style poverty and isolation, either. The unlikely but ideal resolution would be peaceful regime change in Russia followed by an immediate end to the war and lifting of sanctions.
There was a supposed leak from an FSB agent that says the point of no return economically is like June. While I question the document's authenticity I have no doubt that the sanctions are making the war unsustainable. I can easily imagine a man like Putin doubling down on his decision and using small yield tactical baby nukes on the battlefield in an attempt to scare the West into backing off. Threats and bluffing are his modus operandi. That said, I think Putin screwed up and played the nuclear threat card way too early. I am hoping future threats fail miserably and increase the world's resolve to support Ukraine.
At the moment I don't think they have enough to be more than nuisance value.
I can come up with some...
1. They specifically targeted civilians.
2. They didn't care whether or not civilians were there.
While I question the document's authenticity a lot of it seems plausible. Russia is fucked.Read and Share Twitter Threads easily!
Thread Reader helps you read and share the best of Twitter Threadsthreadreaderapp.com
my source for that is pretty discerning, being in the industry. I don't know that the document itself is legit, but there is some credibility imparted. The tone and language the analyst speaks has some verisimilitude to other analysts I've spoken to at length. The perpetual misuse of analysts by leadership to give them authority in their confirmation bias is also quite familiar.While I question the document's authenticity a lot of it seems plausible. Russia is fucked.
I linked the doc in a post upthread- whether authentic or not, I agree that it is interesting enough to be worth sharing.my source for that is pretty discerning, being in the industry. I don't know that the document itself is legit, but there is some credibility imparted. The tone and language the analyst speaks has some verisimilitude to other analysts I've spoken to at length. The perpetual misuse of analysts by leadership to give them authority in their confirmation bias is also quite familiar.
We will see, but I found it quite interesting.
a tiny impact financially, a huge one politically for us. There is great worry that this will massively increase gas and oil prices. However, we are already in pretty high gas and oil and have been for a bit due to the existence of war.The US just banned Russian oil, gas and coal imports.
Nice map. I was considering doing the same. The one thing I'd add is the word "Start" on the first map.
added, and put in an endNice map. I was considering doing the same. The one thing I'd add is the word "Start" on the first map.
Soon you will see a lot of people freak out about this, I expect. They shouldn't, because we are shopping around, of course.
yea, that is an untenable short term solution, and I own an electric car and generally enjoy Buttigieg's policies. There are not enough being produced, the demand FAR outstripped what they anticipated*, and we can't do it in that short a period of time. As for inflation, the economy is very weird right now. People think it's going fine, but they are also worried about inflation, which shouldn't be.I think whatever measures the administration takes to counteract higher gas prices will determine what the reaction is like. There's already a lot of pressure to increase domestic production, and if that's approved, it will go a long way towards how people in the US end up feeling about this. There was already significant inflationary pressure before this, and it's become a political liability for the administration.
However, if the response is just telling people to buy electric cars (looking at you, Buttigieg)...yeah, good luck with that.
I drove a X-Terra for years that got 15-20 miles per gallon. Loved that SUV!My reaction to someone with a gas-guzzling vanity truck freaking out over gas prices.
yea, that is an untenable short term solution, and I own an electric car and generally enjoy Buttigieg's policies. There are not enough being produced, the demand FAR outstripped what they anticipated*, and we can't do it in that short a period of time. As for inflation, the economy is very weird right now. People think it's going fine, but they are also worried about inflation, which shouldn't be.